Last Tuesday PaBaMapa projected the results of the first semifinal of the Eurovision Song Contest. We got nine out of ten entries right. The projection for the second semifinal follows here, these are the ten projected finalists in decreasing probability order:
In fact Lithuania and Macedonia were tied to the point in the 10th place in the projection, We had to apply tie braking procedures to put Macedonia ahead. This projection relies heavily on Youtube watch-counts, making this semi-final a bit problematic since turkey has 4 times more hits than the next country. For fun: here are the youtube-hits for each country (in thousands) as they were on monday evening.
| 1 | turkey | 4104 |
| 2 | russia | 2155 |
| 3 | germany | 2024 |
| 4 | greece | 1700 |
| 5 | cyprus | 1655 |
| 6 | ireland | 1179 |
| 7 | uk | 1000 |
| 8 | sweden | 810 |
| 9 | azerbaijan | 797 |
| 10 | romania | 786 |
| 11 | croatia | 786 |
| 12 | montenegro | 588 |
| 13 | serbia | 570 |
| 14 | spain | 555 |
| 15 | italy | 508 |
| 16 | albania | 457 |
| 17 | austria | 445 |
| 18 | iceland | 440 |
| 19 | san marino | 433 |
| 20 | bosnia | 414 |
| 21 | slovenia | 404 |
| 22 | norway | 366 |
| 23 | france | 350 |
| 24 | estonia | 341 |
| 25 | macedonia | 332 |
| 26 | malta | 314 |
| 27 | israel | 302 |
| 28 | finland | 294 |
| 29 | ukraine | 290 |
| 30 | slovakia | 275 |
| 31 | bulgaria | 265 |
| 32 | hungary | 250 |
| 33 | belgium | 243 |
| 34 | latvia | 230 |
| 35 | denmark | 230 |
| 36 | belarus | 203 |
| 37 | lithuania | 202 |
| 38 | switzerland | 195 |
| 39 | netherlands | 189 |
| 40 | portugal | 182 |
| 41 | moldova | 179 |
| 42 | georgia | 138 |