Eurovision Song Contest 2012 – Projection for the First Semi-Final

We here at are proud to present our projection for the 1st semi-final of Eurovision Song Contest 2012. We project that the following 10 countries will make it to the final on the 26th of May, 2012:

  1. Cyprus
  2. Russia
  3. Albania
  4. Greece
  5. Romania
  6. Ireland
  7. Iceland
  8. Moldova
  9. San Marino
  10. Denmark
This projection is based on two factors. First of all we looked at the YouTube hits for each song in the evening of 21st of May, 2012, (night before the first competition, they will be very skewed after that). Secondly we used the results from the competitions 2001-2010 to calculate “friendship-quotient” for each pair of countries. For example Cyprus and Greece have a very high friendship quotient  (in both directions) since they give each other lots of points.  We then used this to simulate the results for the first semifinal. The two scores (youtube/country- friendship) were added together and projected on to the classical Eurovision 1-8, 10, 12 scoring progression.
You can see the full projection under the following file: esc_1stsemiprojection2012.

  The projections for the second semifinal as well as the final will be provided on the days of those events. But long story short: Russia is looking strong.